What Correlation means
Correlation describes how strongly two outcomes tend to move together. Positive correlation means one outcome happening makes the other more likely - a team winning big and their star quarterback throwing for a lot of touchdowns tend to happen together. Negative correlation means the opposite - a run-heavy, clock-controlling gameplan and a high passing-yardage total tend to work against each other. This is the specific mathematical reason same-game parlays get priced differently than multiplying independent odds together: sportsbooks have to account for the fact that legs aren't truly independent events when they're pulled from the same game.
Key points
- Correlation describes how strongly two outcomes tend to move together.
- Negative correlation means the opposite - a run-heavy, clock-controlling gameplan and a high passing-yardage total tend to work against each other.
- This is the specific mathematical reason same-game parlays get priced differently than multiplying independent odds together: sportsbooks have to account for the fact that legs aren't truly independent events when they're pulled from the same game.
Example and context
Positive correlation means one outcome happening makes the other more likely - a team winning big and their star quarterback throwing for a lot of touchdowns tend to happen together.
Related glossary terms
These terms sit in the same part of the betting vocabulary and are useful to read next.
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