NEWS & LEARNING · NBA & FUTURES
Oklahoma City and San Antonio lead a crowded futures market heading into opening night on October 20, while a summer of blockbuster moves has reshaped where bettors are putting their money.
- Co-favorites: Thunder and Spurs at around +250 to +280 to win the 2026-27 title
- Biggest liability: The 76ers at BetMGM after LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joined Philadelphia
- MVP favorite: Victor Wembanyama at +210 at DraftKings
The 2026-27 NBA season tips off on Tuesday, October 20, and the futures market that greets it looks nothing like the one bettors saw a year ago. The New York Knicks are the reigning champions after beating the San Antonio Spurs in five games in the NBA Finals, yet they open the new season as only the third- or fourth-best title bet at most sportsbooks. Oklahoma City and San Antonio sit at the top of the board, and a summer of headline moves has turned the Philadelphia 76ers into the team sportsbooks are most worried about.
Here is how the championship and MVP markets look, what the opening-day slate offers, and what US bettors should keep in mind before placing season-long wagers.
A Two-Team Market at the Top
At every major US sportsbook, the Thunder and Spurs are priced almost identically as co-favorites. DraftKings had both at +270 as of mid-October, BetMGM had both at +260, and FanDuel had San Antonio slightly ahead at +250 with Oklahoma City at +260.
| Team | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | +260 | +270 | +260 | +280 |
| Spurs | +260 | +270 | +250 | +270 |
| 76ers | +850 | +900 | n/a | +800 |
| Knicks | +1000 | +900 | +850 | +900 |
| Celtics | +1400 | +1300 | +1400 | +1800 |
Prices compiled from VegasInsider and FOX Sports listings in mid-October. FanDuel's 76ers price was not shown in the source listing.
The case for both is straightforward. San Antonio reached the Finals in Victor Wembanyama's first playoff appearance, beating Oklahoma City in a Western Conference finals Game 7 on the Thunder's home floor along the way. Oklahoma City was the preseason title favorite last year and remains one of the deepest, youngest rosters in the league, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A price of +260 implies roughly a 28% chance for each team, which means the market sees more than half of all possible outcomes ending with one of these two teams lifting the trophy.
For bettors, that concentration is worth pausing on. When two teams absorb that much probability in October, the rest of the field is priced long. That can create value further down the board, but only if you believe the gap at the top is overstated.
The Champions Are Being Doubted
The Knicks won the 2025-26 title with Jalen Brunson earning Finals MVP after a 45-point performance in the clinching Game 5. Repeating is hard, and the market clearly expects regression: New York is +850 to +1000 depending on the book, and it actually drifted slightly at BetMGM over the summer, from +850 to +900.
Part of that is simple math. Champions face a longer season, a shorter offseason and the full attention of every opponent. Part of it is the arms race in the Eastern Conference, where Philadelphia, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto and Miami all made moves that sportsbooks have priced into the conference picture.
How LeBron James Moved a Market
The single biggest story of the futures market this summer was LeBron James signing with the 76ers, on a two-year deal with a player option in the second year. Philadelphia had already traded for Jaylen Brown, adding him to a core that includes Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Joel Embiid.
The effect on the betting board was dramatic. According to BetMGM, the 76ers opened at +6000, 12th on its board. The Brown trade cut them to +2000, and the James signing pushed them to +950, fourth overall. Philadelphia went from 20th in both tickets and money at BetMGM to first in both categories, and the book said the 76ers became its largest liability to win the title. In the first hour after the James news, about 98% of straight championship bets at BetMGM were on Philadelphia.
That is a classic example of how public money and sportsbook pricing interact. When one team draws a flood of small bets, a book may shorten the price further than the team's true chances justify, simply to slow the action. BetMGM's oddsmaker said he expected the 76ers to drift back toward about +1200, which would signal that the book thinks the current price is driven more by demand than by a change in true probability.
The ripple effects were felt elsewhere. The Golden State Warriors, a rumored destination for James, drifted from +3000 to +6000 once he chose Philadelphia.
Other Summer Moves That Reshaped the Board
- Miami Heat: The Heat jumped from +3000 to +1800 at BetMGM after trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo, then drifted back toward +2500 to +3000 as the market settled.
- Toronto Raptors: The Raptors moved from +12500 to +2200 at BetMGM on news of a pending deal for Kawhi Leonard, and they now sit around +2500 at most books.
- Detroit Pistons: Detroit is priced around +2200 to +3000, reflecting a young team that the market expects to keep improving behind Cade Cunningham.
- Boston Celtics: Boston is the fifth choice at most books, between +1300 and +1800, with the team built around Jayson Tatum.
The wide price differences between books are notable. Toronto is +2500 at DraftKings but +2000 at FanDuel. Minnesota ranges from +1800 at Caesars to +2500 at BetMGM and DraftKings. On a futures bet that may not settle for eight months, shopping across sportsbooks can be the difference between a 20-to-1 and a 25-to-1 payout.
MVP: Wembanyama Is the Favorite
DraftKings opened the season with Wembanyama as the MVP favorite at +210, ahead of three-time contender Gilgeous-Alexander.
| Player | Team | MVP odds |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | +210 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | +350 |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +500 |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | +550 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat | +1200 |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | +1800 |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | +1800 |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | +2200 |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | +5000 |
DraftKings odds as of October 16, via Sports Illustrated.
Wembanyama finished third in MVP voting last season and won Defensive Player of the Year, but he played only about 29 minutes per game. If San Antonio increases his workload and he stays healthy, the favorite's price may already be as long as it will get.
Gilgeous-Alexander is chasing a third straight MVP, a feat only a handful of players have achieved. Jokic has finished first or second in each of the last six seasons and led the league in rebounds and assists last season, but voters may look for a new face if Denver's aging core slips. Doncic averaged 33.5 points per game last season, and his team was built around him this summer, which makes his +550 price interesting.
One historical guideline worth keeping in mind: MVP winners almost always come from teams that finish in the top three of their conference. That is one reason Antetokounmpo, now in Miami, is priced at +1200 despite his résumé.
Opening Day: Three Marquee Games on NBC
The league opens with a three-game slate on Tuesday, October 20, all on NBC.
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics at Pistons | 3 p.m. | 1.5 points | 222.5 |
| 76ers at Knicks | 7 p.m. | Knicks -5.5 | 231.5 |
| Thunder at Spurs | 9:30 p.m. | Spurs -2.5 | 231.5 |
Lines from FanDuel Research. The Celtics-Pistons favorite was not clearly listed; check your sportsbook.
The 76ers at Knicks is the headline game. It is the champions' banner night and LeBron James's Philadelphia debut, and FanDuel has New York at -190 on the moneyline with Philadelphia at +160. The late game is a rematch of last season's Western Conference finals, with the Spurs at -132 and the Thunder at +112.
Betting Opening Night
Opening night is fun, but it is also one of the hardest nights to bet profitably. Rotations are not settled, new stars are still learning systems, and the betting public tends to overreact to big names. A few points to keep in mind:
- New teammates take time. Philadelphia has two major additions. Chemistry questions often show up first in turnovers and defense.
- Totals can be inflated. Both late games are at 231.5. Early-season defenses are often sharper than early-season offenses, so be cautious about chasing overs.
- Watch minutes restrictions. Teams often limit veterans in the first week. Check injury reports and coach comments before betting player props.
Futures Strategy for the Long Season
Futures are attractive because they offer big payouts, but they tie up your money for months and carry a built-in sportsbook margin that is usually higher than on single-game bets. If you are new to these markets, our futures betting guide explains the basics. A few principles:
- Compare every book. The gaps above show how much prices vary.
- Avoid chasing public favorites. When a team draws heavy public money, as Philadelphia did, its price can become shorter than its real chances.
- Consider timing. Prices on favorites rarely improve once the season starts and they win, but prices on contenders can lengthen after a slow start or an injury scare, offering better entry points.
- Use smaller stakes. A futures bet should be a small part of your bankroll, not a long-term lockup of money you may need.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the 2026-27 NBA season start?
The season opens on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, with three games on NBC: Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks and Thunder at Spurs.
Who is favored to win the 2026-27 NBA title?
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are co-favorites at around +250 to +280 at major US sportsbooks.
Who won the 2025-26 NBA championship?
The New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs in five games, with Jalen Brunson named Finals MVP.
Who is the MVP favorite?
Victor Wembanyama is the MVP favorite at +210 at DraftKings, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +350.
Why are the 76ers such a big liability for sportsbooks?
After LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joined Philadelphia, a flood of public bets came in on the 76ers to win the title. BetMGM said Philadelphia became its largest liability, meaning it would pay out the most if the 76ers win.
Odds, figures and legal status change frequently and can differ between sportsbooks and states. This article is educational and is not betting advice.
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Keep reading
- NBA betting guide
- Futures betting explained
- How American odds work
- Inside the 2026 player prop crackdown
Need a betting term refresher? See our betting glossary.