NEWS & LEARNING · MARKET & REVENUE
New York's weekly reports show record-pace betting volume but single-digit hold, and Wall Street analysts warn that early-season results are running against DraftKings.
- Weekly handle: $619.4 million in New York for the week ending Oct. 4, the second $600M week of the NFL season
- Hold: New York has not posted a double-digit statewide hold since mid-August
- Analyst warning: Susquehanna flagged unfavorable hold for DraftKings in early October
Americans are betting more on football than ever. The problem for sportsbooks is that, so far this season, bettors are also keeping more of what they wager.
New York, the country's largest sports betting market by handle, has already posted two weeks above $600 million in bets during the 2026 NFL season, a mark it did not reach until late October last year. Yet statewide hold, the percentage of each dollar wagered that sportsbooks keep, has stayed stuck in single digits since mid-August. At the same time, analysts at Susquehanna have flagged that early-October results look unfavorable for DraftKings, one of the two dominant operators.
Here is what the numbers show, why hold swings so much, and what it means for bettors.
What Is Hold, and Why Does It Matter?
Hold is simple: it is gross gaming revenue divided by handle. If sportsbooks take $100 million in bets and pay out $91 million in winnings, they keep $9 million, a 9% hold.
Over a full year, US online sportsbooks have generally targeted hold rates around 10% or higher, helped by the growth of parlays and same-game parlays, which carry much bigger margins than straight bets. Week to week, though, hold depends heavily on results. If favorites cover and popular parlays hit, books can lose money even on huge handle. If underdogs win and parlays bust, books can post enormous weeks.
That is why early NFL season results matter so much to investors. Football drives the busiest months of the year, and a run of bettor-friendly weekends can hurt quarterly earnings even when volume is growing.
New York's Season So Far
Weekly figures from the New York State Gaming Commission, as reported by Covers and Deadspin, show strong handle and uneven revenue:
| Week ending | NFL week | Handle | Revenue | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 20 | Week 2 | $611.1M | $38.5M | 6.3% |
| Oct. 4 | Week 4 | $619.4M | $49.2M | 7.9% |
| Oct. 11 | Week 5 | $581.2M | $52.1M | About 9% |
Week 3 figures were not included in the reports reviewed for this article.
The Opening Weeks Were Rough
The 2026 season started badly for New York's sportsbooks. Hold in the opening NFL week was just 2.9%, and the first two weeks combined produced $58.5 million in revenue on more than $1.2 billion in handle. That was New York's lowest two-week revenue total during an NFL season since October 2024, even though handle was up 13.6% from a year earlier.
A Partial Recovery
Results improved from there. The week ending October 4 produced $619.4 million in handle, the fourth-largest week in the state's history and up 12.5% from a year earlier, with $49.2 million in revenue. The following week, despite handle slipping about 6% to $581.2 million, revenue rose to $52.1 million, the best week of the football season, and far above the $30.2 million posted in the same week of 2025.
Even so, the state has not reached a double-digit weekly hold since mid-August. For an industry that has built its business plans around parlay-heavy margins, that is a meaningful gap.
Operator Breakdown: FanDuel and DraftKings Pull Away
The New York market is a two-horse race at the top:
| Operator | Week ending Oct. 4 | Week ending Oct. 11 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | $228.2M handle, above 10% hold | $209M handle, 9.1% hold |
| DraftKings | Over $200M handle, 6.4% hold | $203M handle, 9.2% hold |
| Fanatics | $70M handle, 7.0% hold | $68.4M handle, 9.7% hold |
| Caesars | $44.6M handle, 4.9% hold | $39.4M handle, nearly 9% hold |
| BetMGM | $38.1M handle, 7.0% hold | $40.1M handle, 5.3% hold |
| BetRivers | $13.6M handle, 7.8% hold | $10.3M handle, 9.2% hold |
FanDuel has topped $200 million in New York handle every week of the season and posted $23.6 million in gross revenue in the week ending October 4, its best in 11 weeks. DraftKings had a tougher time that week, with a 6.4% hold and $13.8 million in revenue, down from $18.1 million the week before. It bounced back with its best week of the NFL season in the week ending October 11, with $18.6 million in revenue.
Fanatics continues to establish itself as a clear third by handle, while BetMGM and Caesars, once major players in New York, now take a far smaller share of the state's wagers.
Why Hold Matters to New York's Budget
Hold is not just an operator problem. New York taxes online sports betting revenue at 51%, the highest rate in the country, so the state collects roughly half of every dollar sportsbooks keep. A week with a 3% hold produces a much smaller tax check than a week with a 10% hold, even if the handle is identical.
That high tax rate also helps explain why New York's operators have been aggressive about pushing parlays and same-game parlays, which carry bigger margins. When straight bets dominate and favorites cover, the state's revenue falls along with the operators'. Lawmakers in other states have watched New York's model closely as they consider tax increases of their own.
The Wall Street View
On October 16, Deadspin reported that Susquehanna analysts had flagged weak sportsbook results for DraftKings after reviewing NFL Week 5 and college football Week 6. Their model showed hold had been unfavorable during the latest reporting period, and that October's month-to-date hold had also slipped into unfavorable territory. September's hold was already considered weak and down from the same period a year earlier.
Analysts and the report itself cautioned that this is a snapshot rather than proof of a lasting problem. Hold naturally swings, and a few bad weekends can be offset by a few good ones. The bigger tests will come from upcoming state revenue reports and DraftKings' quarterly results, where the company will report how its national hold compares with its targets.
Why Bettors Keep Winning Early in the Season
There are a few common explanations for bettor-friendly starts to an NFL season:
- Favorites cover more than expected. The public loves favorites. When they win and cover, books pay out on a large share of tickets.
- Popular parlays hit. A few big same-game parlays landing on primetime games can wipe out a weekend's margin.
- Information edges. Early in the season, lines are based on preseason assumptions, and sharp bettors can exploit mispriced teams before books adjust.
- Randomness. Football has a small sample of games each week. A handful of late touchdowns or missed kicks can swing hold by several points.
What It Means for Bettors
Low hold is not a sign that betting has become easier. It reflects results, not a change in the house edge built into the odds. A few practical points:
- Expect promotions to tighten if hold stays low. Sportsbooks fund bonus bets and odds boosts from their margins. A run of weak hold often leads to fewer or smaller promotions.
- Parlays still carry high margins. Even in a low-hold month, parlays are where books make most of their money. Our parlay guide explains why.
- Line shopping matters more than ever. With prices tightening, the bettor's best tool is comparing odds across sportsbooks.
- Taxes are rising. States have been raising sportsbook taxes and exploring per-wager fees, which can lead to worse odds and fewer promotions over time. We covered that trend in our report on per-wager taxes.
The Prediction Market Factor
All of this is happening while prediction markets grow quickly. Kalshi reported record weekly volume in early October, driven in part by football contracts. Those platforms do not pay state gaming taxes, and their growth has become a talking point for sportsbook operators lobbying against higher state taxes. Any shift of volume from sportsbooks to prediction markets would show up in handle figures like New York's, which so far remain strong.
What to Watch Next
- Upcoming weekly New York reports, which will show whether hold recovers into double digits.
- Monthly reports from New Jersey, Pennsylvania and other states for September and October.
- DraftKings and Flutter (FanDuel) quarterly earnings, which will reveal how national hold compares with internal targets.
- Promotion levels. A pullback in bonus offers during November would be a signal that books are protecting margins.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is sportsbook hold?
Hold is the percentage of total bets that a sportsbook keeps as revenue after paying winners. A 9% hold means the book keeps $9 for every $100 wagered.
Why has New York's hold been low this season?
Weekly hold depends on results. Early-season wins by favorites and popular parlays can reduce hold, and New York has not posted a double-digit weekly hold since mid-August.
How much is bet in New York each week during football season?
New York handle has topped $600 million twice so far in the 2026 NFL season, with $619.4 million for the week ending October 4.
Which sportsbooks lead New York?
FanDuel and DraftKings each handle more than $200 million per week in New York, with Fanatics a distant third.
Does low hold mean bettors are more likely to win?
Not necessarily. Hold reflects past results, not future odds. The built-in house edge on each bet does not change because books had a bad few weeks.
Odds, figures and legal status change frequently and can differ between sportsbooks and states. This article is educational and is not betting advice.
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Need a betting term refresher? See our betting glossary.